DOWNFALL BEGINS — Why NCIS Season 23’s New Direction Could Doom the Franchise

After more than two decades on the air, NCIS is preparing to shake things up in Season 23 — but not everyone is convinced the changes will keep the show afloat. While the long-running procedural aims to place deeper focus on its beloved characters, critics warn that this character-centric pivot might be too little, too late for a franchise that’s already showing signs of decline.

The NCIS franchise, once a juggernaut in the crime procedural world, has gradually evolved from adrenaline-filled investigations to more intimate, character-driven stories. Season 23 will double down on this transition, picking up threads from Season 22 — including the emotional aftermath of Parker’s father’s death, Carla’s stunning betrayal, and rising tension between Palmer and Knight.

Showrunner Steven D. Binder confirmed this creative shift, explaining in a recent interview that the series is becoming a “character-forward show” unlike anything fans have seen before.

“We really want to get to everybody in a big way,” Binder stated. “I know people always say, ‘I watch the show for the characters’ — and I really want to make this a character-forward show in a way we haven’t seen before.”

While this pivot may appeal to long-time fans invested in the personal lives of the MCRT team, it raises critical questions about what NCIS needs most to thrive in today’s hyper-competitive TV landscape.

Character Focus Is a Risky Bet for a Procedural

Unlike prestige dramas built on layered characters and slow-burn emotional arcs, NCIS rose to fame through high-stakes investigations, shocking plot twists, and procedural storytelling. The heart of the show has always been the weekly case — a new mystery to solve, a fresh danger to face, and clever teamwork to crack it all open.

Over time, however, these once-gripping cases have become more formulaic and less intense. Recent seasons have leaned toward safer, less suspenseful narratives that lack the bite of earlier episodes. Viewers have noticed, and the show’s ratings have taken a hit.

Though personal arcs like Knight and Palmer’s relationship or Parker’s past have brought some depth, they’re not the kind of stories that build tension or drive cliffhangers. If NCIS becomes too introspective, it risks alienating viewers who tune in for the procedural thrills rather than the character drama.

Season 23 Has a Lot to Prove

NCIS Season 22 marked a critical point in the franchise’s history — and not in a good way. The season delivered the show’s lowest-rated episode ever, a shocking statistic for a series once known for its bulletproof popularity. The reasons behind the dip are multifaceted: increased competition from streaming services, the natural aging of the franchise, and an evolving audience that demands more innovation from legacy shows.

By leaning into character-driven plots, NCIS may be trying to modernize and mirror the tone of newer hits. But the danger lies in forgetting what originally made it great. The franchise was built on compelling criminal cases, clever plot twists, and team-based chemistry — not melodrama.

To truly revive its reputation and reclaim viewership, NCIS needs to balance personal stakes with gripping procedural storytelling. Emotional arcs can elevate a season, but only when they’re anchored by memorable cases that give characters something high-stakes to respond to.

Can NCIS Relearn What Made It a Hit?

Ironically, the path forward for NCIS may be found in its own past. Earlier seasons set a gold standard for the genre — episodes that kept audiences on edge while organically building character relationships through action, not exposition.

If Season 23 can recapture that intensity while adding depth to the characters fans already love, there may still be hope. Strong cases don’t have to exclude character development; the best episodes seamlessly combine both.

But time is running out. The TV landscape is more crowded than ever, and viewers have countless options at their fingertips. For NCIS to survive another season — let alone a few more years — it will need more than familiar faces and emotional callbacks. It will need urgency, suspense, and a renewed commitment to storytelling that honors its roots.

A Franchise at a Crossroads

The upcoming season represents more than a creative shift — it’s a critical fork in the road. If the experiment fails, it could be the beginning of the end for one of TV’s longest-running dramas. But if NCIS can evolve without losing its identity, Season 23 could mark an unexpected turning point.

Whether this gamble pays off or backfires, one thing is clear: the next chapter of NCIS will be its most defining yet.

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