Halfway through the 2025 run of Paramount+’s NCIS: Tony & Ziva, the series pulls off its boldest pivot yet. The episode “To Be Determined” doesn’t just turn the central mystery inside out—it reveals the mastermind pulling the strings and ends with a loss that will reverberate through the rest of the season. If you thought Martine Aranow was the show’s sole power player, the midseason chapter makes it clear she’s not operating alone—and the person standing beside her has been hiding in plain sight.
The Midseason Twist That Reframes the Hunt
Until now, Martine has been the face of the threat chasing Tony DiNozzo and Ziva David across Europe. But with new intel and a daring infiltration, the pair discover a deeper conspiracy tied to NATO, a stolen drone prototype, and a high-security prison that isn’t what it appears to be. The reveal resets our understanding of the chessboard—and puts Tony and Ziva in more danger than ever.
Jonah Markham: The Hidden Mastermind Behind the Supermax
Fresh from their faux wedding cover operation, Tony and Ziva follow a lead from ally Claudette Caron: Jonah Markham, NATO’s missing Inspector General, is supposedly locked away in an Austrian supermax under the alias Oscar Zagreb. Using Martine’s phone and ID to commandeer her private jet, the duo fly straight into the lion’s den. With help from Boris Peskov’s 9.4 program—plus their signature blend of wit and nerve—they penetrate the prison’s layers, while Claudette, Boris, and Fruzsi Gortva keep eyes on the mission from a safe distance.
Once inside, the script flips. Jonah isn’t a captive—he’s running the show. The facility doubles as a covert hub for the stolen Reigning Fire prototype drone, the very weapon system at the heart of this season’s conflict. Jonah embedded himself to court a key asset: the brilliant hacker Dejan Lazar.
Dejan Lazar’s Tragedy and the Shadow of Reigning Fire
Lazar’s story is harrowing. His hometown in Bosnia was razed by a paramilitary squad, acting on orders from Aaron Graves, the head of Reigning Fire. Forced under duress to lend his skills to the defense contractor, Lazar later saw his technology deployed without his knowledge to devastating effect in Sudan, where thousands died. The fallout left Lazar imprisoned and estranged from his son—broken, isolated, and primed for exploitation.
Enter Jonah and Martine, masquerading as impeccable INTERPOL operatives offering redemption. Their pitch: help us breach Reigning Fire’s firewall and take command of the drone network. The personal motive behind Jonah and Martine’s vendetta against Graves remains murky, but we learn a telling detail—Jonah may be American, yet he was born in Serbia. It’s an origin that hints at deeper layers and long memories.
Locked Up, Breaking Out: Tony and Ziva’s High-Stakes Escape
When Tony and Ziva discover Jonah’s true role, they land in a cell. Of course, captivity and DiNozzo-David are a short-lived pairing. They jailbreak under pressure, navigating a chaos-sparking prison riot orchestrated by Jonah to slow them down. In the midst of the turmoil, they establish contact with Henry Rayner-Hunt, Tony’s longtime friend at INTERPOL and a man they previously feared could be compromised.
Henry, it turns out, is clean—and already en route. Martine had looped him in earlier with a report that Tony and Ziva were captured, leaning on their fugitive status to keep pressure high. Once Henry hears the real story, he throws in with them, ready to expose Jonah and Martine’s masquerade.
Temporary Triumph, Catastrophic Turn
Against the odds, Tony and Ziva fight their way out and reconnect with Henry. In a daring move, they even manage to corral Jonah, Martine, and Lazar as the trio attempt to flee the blast zone. For a breathless moment, it looks like the heroes have seized the upper hand.
Then the floor gives way. Jonah deploys the Reigning Fire prototype to obliterate the prison—an explosive strike that doubles as a smokescreen. In the chaos, Lazar’s death is staged to perfection. As Tony and Ziva process the fallout, a chilling voice memo arrives from Tali, signaling immediate danger to their daughter. Henry, ever loyal, hands over his car to help them race to Tali’s aid.
A Devastating Loss: Henry Rayner-Hunt Is Killed
In the confusion of the drone strike, Jonah makes his move. He blindsides Henry and fatally shoots him. The death lands like a gut punch—not just because it occurs so early in the season, but because Henry dies finally knowing Tony and Ziva were telling the truth. It’s a cruel, human moment in a story otherwise driven by covert agendas and military tech.
The fallout is immediate. Tony’s resolve to clear their names hardens into something sharper. Ziva, balancing fierce maternal urgency with operational precision, now faces dual fronts: protect Tali and dismantle the machine that killed their friend. And Martine’s expression in the aftermath—shaken, conflicted—suggests fractures are forming in her alliance with Jonah.
The Bigger Picture: Conspiracy, Cover, and Collateral
The reveal of Jonah as the hidden architect reframes the season-long conspiracy. Reigning Fire, through Aaron Graves, is no longer a distant corporate villain but an active catalyst whose choices reverberate through war-torn regions and secret prisons. Jonah’s commandeering of the supermax and the drone prototype bridges geopolitical intrigue with personal vendetta, while the INTERPOL cover adds a chilling layer—corruption and credibility intertwined.
On the ground, the stakes are heartbreakingly personal. Tali’s ominous message turns the drama from cat-and-mouse to race-against-time. Meanwhile, the prison’s destruction eliminates a trove of potential evidence, making the path to exoneration that much steeper for Tony and Ziva.
Performances, Pacing, and the Craft of the Twist
“To Be Determined” is built like a pressure cooker, assembling breadcrumb clues from prior episodes into a midseason detonation. The infiltration sequence snaps with urgency, the riot is claustrophobic, and the drone strike lands with brutal finality. The emotional center belongs to Henry’s final act—selfless, understated, deeply human—which grounds the spectacle in loss and consequence.
What to Watch for in Episode 6
Expect the fallout to be fast and ferocious. Martine’s crisis of conscience could evolve into a critical pivot if she distances herself from Jonah. Tony and Ziva will likely prioritize Tali’s safety while hunting leads that connect Reigning Fire, Graves, and the drone network. Watch for breadcrumbs about Jonah’s Serbian roots and any lingering ties to NATO that might explain his endgame. And don’t discount Lazar—where there’s a staged death, there’s often a comeback.
The 9.4 program remains an ace up Tony and Ziva’s sleeve, but with the prison gone and the villains mobile, every digital advantage will be contested. Clearing their names now means exposing a conspiracy that thrives on erasing evidence.
Why This Matters for Tony & Ziva’s Next Moves
The midpoint episode doesn’t just raise the stakes; it refocuses the series on what NCIS: Tony & Ziva does best: intimate character stakes against a high-tech, globe-trotting backdrop. With Jonah unmasked, Henry gone, and Tali in peril, the mission is no longer purely about vindication—it’s about dismantling a network that weaponizes people as deftly as it weaponizes drones. If the first half of the season was a chase, the second half is a reckoning. Episode 6 can’t get here fast enough.