Before we talk about Pittsburgh (and I guess we really need to talk about what just happened in Pittsburgh), I want to make sure we’ve properly absorbed what happened in April. We need to take a moment to enjoy it. We don’t get these opportunities very often.
Your Cincinnati Reds entered May with a 20-11 record, the first time in franchise history they’d won 20 games before May 1. Seriously, in the entire history of this franchise dating back to 1882, through the Big Red Machine and the wire-to-wire champions and every other incarnation of this club, no team had ever won 20 games before the calendar flipped to May. It was also the first time since 2002 they finished April alone in first place. What a time to be alive.
This year’s club also reached that 20-win threshold in just 31 games, their fastest pace since 2006. For context, last year’s playoff team didn’t reach 20 wins until its 41st game. They also won five consecutive series, went 12-0 in games decided by two runs or fewer, and spent 18 days in possession of first place in the National League Central. These are actual things that happened!
I really feel like we need to spend some time enjoying an uncommon start to the season. On the other hand, that was April. Now here we are in May.
The Reds went to Pittsburgh and got swept in three games, including a 17-7 humiliation in which the pitchers walked 11 batters, surrendered 19 hits, gave up three separate five-run innings, and were eventually forced to deploy their catcher on the mound for the final two innings. I do not want to see Jose Trevino pitch again. I say this with great affection for Jose Trevino. Never again, please and thank you.
Now, having set the scene, let’s take a breath. Everything is fine. Or rather, everything is roughly where we expected it to be. That’s as close to fine as any of us has any right to expect in early May. We’re Reds fans, after all.
Here is one of my most sincerely held beliefs about baseball, earned through decades of watching this franchise do things both magnificent and, um, less-than-magnificent: A team is never as good as it looks at its best and never as bad as it looks at its worst. The truth is always somewhere in the middle. Apply that principle to the last five weeks, and what do you get? A team that’s pretty much exactly what we thought they were in late March. It’s a somewhat above-average club with real strengths, real flaws, and a ceiling that will depend heavily on its starting rotation staying healthy.
That, of course, brings me to Nick Lodolo, and the reason I’m not particularly panicked about what happened in Pittsburgh or last night in Chicago.
The Reds entered May missing their two best starting pitchers. Hunter Greene isn’t back until July at the earliest. As for Lodolo, and his blisters … well, Lodolo made it through 79 pitches in his most recent rehab start, threw the slider that aggravates his fingertips 16 or 17 times without incident, and is expected to rejoin the rotation this weekend against Houston.
That matters enormously. When Lodolo is healthy and right, he’s one of the better left-handers in this league, a legitimate No. 2 starter who gives this rotation a completely different look than it has had for the first five weeks of the season. I know he’s not often healthy and his blister problems keep popping up, but I think we really need to be optimistic here for once.
The three-game sweep in Pittsburgh happened, but it happened for reasons I’m not overly concerned about. Brady Singer couldn’t put hitters away with two strikes in the series opener and didn’t survive the fourth inning, but he’s going to be fine. If he’s your fourth or fifth starter, your team is capable of big things. Rhett Lowder has mostly been genuinely brilliant this season, but he simply did not have it on Saturday. This happens with young pitchers. You have to be patient. But he has a boatload of talent and has been too good this season to let one hideous start rewrite the narrative.
I suppose the deepest issue exposed by Pittsburgh is the lack of options in long relief. When a game gets out of hand early, the Reds need someone who can eat innings, throw strikes, and keep the bullpen from being destroyed before a four-game series in Chicago. I’m not sure they currently have that person in-house. But if the starters are better on a consistent basis, that’s not something you need to worry about. And I’m genuinely not worried. If long relief is your biggest concern, you’re in high cotton, as they say.
(I still have some concerns over the offense—I’m looking at you, TJ Friedl and Matt McLain—but the Reds have scored 46 runs in the last 10 games. Again, I’m optimistic.)
Listen, it was never going to be easy. The NL Central is the best division in baseball thus far this year. The Cubs are good. The Pirates are better than they’ve been in years. It looks like the division is going to make everyone earn it. Getting swept in Pittsburgh stings, no doubt about it, but it’s also a reasonable reminder that the Reds are not going to go 20-11 over every 31 game span. There will be rough weeks. That’s baseball.
All of which lands us exactly where we were in late March: The rotation is the key. Lowder will be fine. Chase Burns has been excellent. Greene comes back in July. If Lodolo can stay healthy (and I know that’s a huge question), this team can still make April look like a preview of good things to come rather than the high point of the season.
April was simply glorious, and I don’t want that glow to fade. But baseball is relentless. They play games almost every day. Time marches on. But the ol’ Redlegs are still in third place, and they have an opportunity to rise in the standings this week with three more against the first-place Cubbies.
I’ve been through too many disastrous seasons over the last three decades to get upset about one awful series in Pittsburgh. The Reds are a fun team to watch. Keep calm and carry on.
